Bullish, or Not

But “he who glories, let him glory in the Lord.” For not he who commends himself is approved, but whom the Lord commends.

2 Corinthians 10:17-18

If there is one thing that is clear about the Bible from the Old to New Testament, it is that God has created mankind, and God has provided the path to eternal life. The direct connection is Jesus Christ, who has always been, was alive in the flesh on earth, died on the cross, and rose from the dead as only God could do. My works outside of God cannot earn me anything when it comes to eternity and believing that I have any authority over life is foolish.

Giving glory to God is important because it displays a healthy recognition of God’s power beyond me. My own ability to create a so-called destiny for myself is completely dependent on the Lord’s path that he has created for me. For investing, the key is not to be driven by my emotions or my determinations as this is based on what I want apart from God. Performance is an important part of investing, but my performance is only a reflection of what God has given to me whether tangible or through His guidance. This doesn’t mean that I don’t have any part in decisions and execution of my strategies, it simply means that I give glory to God and not myself regardless of outcomes.

Bullish

Bullish (BLSH) is an important company for investors to pay attention to. This sort of statement usually is meant to equate to a positive thesis. However, for BLSH, it’s the not so clear. BLSH has hit the stock market in extremely overvalued fashion, which isn’t atypical for IPOs. This is especially the case during bull markets and stock markets in the U.S. are at all-time highs and excessively overvalued.

For investors, there are some very important questions to consider regarding BLSH. These questions offer insights into how investors should be thinking about Cryptocurrency-related investments as more will likely be coming. The reoccurring theme across all of this is valuation. Overvalued markets tend to lose sight of valuation as animal spirits play out but keeping a keen eye on fundamentals and valuation are the two core areas that are difference makers when it comes to long-term performance.

Question 1 – How Do We Account For BLSH’s Fundamentals?

Investors interested in Fintech need to exercise substantial caution before purchasing shares. This cuts across the bulk of newer market participants from banking and lending, buy-now-pay-later, to Crypto. For BLSH, red flags emerge immediately just by looking at the company’s revenue line items.

BLSH does not include a net revenue line item but rather provides all the company’s digital asset sales, spread income, and changes in fair value futures and assets. This information on the income statement gives nothing to investors to understand BLSH’s core revenue.

The company also discloses Crypto trading volume that differs substantially from its digital asset sales.

Unlike some peers, BLSH does include adjusted transaction revenue and overall adjusted revenue, which is helpful for investors, and the company provides guidance on how these adjustments are calculated. The primary issue is that there isn’t a way to tease out changes in inventory value directly for BLSH’s digital asset sales, as well as other components aside from management’s disclosures.

Adjusted revenue additionally has murkiness as some of the components that aggregate outside of adjusted transaction revenue fall into the same disclosure process. Investors need to scrutinize adjusted transaction revenue and adjusted revenue as the company continues to scale to develop a sense off confidence.  

Trading volume also needs scrutiny even though it is deemed a key component of the company’s performance and potential. Trading volume growth has been robust, but digital assets sales as a percentage of trading volume have continued to decline substantially as BLSH only recognizes revenue-related transactions that occur on its exchange.

Lastly, BLSH is clearly a non-U.S. play as most its digital asset sales are outside of the U.S. BLSH has focused on major countries like Singapore and the United Kingdom that have established regulatory clarity. Like many other industries, the U.S. market for Crypto has the highest potential.

Jim Cramer has already coined BLSH as the “institutional Coinbase”. This is interesting because today, BLSH is doing about a quarter of institutional trading volume versus Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN). It remains to be seen to the degree that BLSH will be able to maximize institutional digital asset sales as trading volumes grow.

Question 2 – How Have Other Peers Fared Recently?

There have been numerous companies going public recently including direct peers like Circle Internet Group (CRCL), with COIN and Bakkt Holdings (BKKT); versus broader market players like Chime Financial Inc. (CHYM), eToro Group (ETOR), and Miami International Holdings (MIAX). Other key players include Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Tradeweb Markets (TW), and Block, Inc. (XYZ).

Results across this group in 2025 have been mixed:

• Cryptocurrencies

  • BKKT – (64%)

  • BLSH – 121%

  • CRCL – 251%

  • COIN – 29%

• Capital Markets

  • ETOR – (2%)

  • MIAX – 62%

  • TW – (2%)

• Other Fintech

  • AFRM – 31%

  • XYZ – (7%)

  • CHYM – 11%

  • PYPL – (18%)

  • HOOD – 193%

  • SOFI – 62%

Crypto has been the top performer for the most part during 2025. The utility of Crypto remains a key driver towards sustained leading performance in the financial sector. The U.S. administration’s much more positive stance on Crypto also bodes well for more companies to go public on U.S. stock exchanges. Investors need to recognize that as Crypto becomes more engrained into the economy, other legacy and newer companies leveraging legacy financial institutions will be at great risk over the long-term. BKKT’s substantial underperformance is an indication of investor misreading of the company’s fundamentals and valuation relationships.

Capital market peers have been muted with the exception being MIAX. Investors are expecting big things from MIAX like TW and ETOR although MIAX’s operating cash flow margins are off to a very paltry start. Like BLSH and BKKT there are also inconsistencies across capital market peers driven by misrepresentations of Crypto trading volume and net revenues.

Other Fintech peers include numerous companies engaged in innovative financial solutions. The one theme they all have in common unfortunately is they all are engaged in predominantly legacy financial services. Both XYZ and PYPL also have misrepresentative Crypto trading volume to net revenue, while companies like AFRM, CHYM, HOOD, and SOFI are oriented towards credit card, banking, and investing legacy structures. These latter companies have been volatile due to this dependence on legacy structures. While they are growing volumes and net revenue, as time goes by, they will inevitably see valuations fall into line like legacy peers. There are major questions as to their ability to scale to the levels some investors are expecting. HOOD for the time being is the big winner as the company’s rapid growth has been better balanced from a cash flow and valuation perspective.

Question 3 – To What Degree Is BLSH Overvalued?

The short answer is extremely. I’ve initiated my financial model and while I still have some iterations to go on it, I think I’ve developed a reasonable mid-term assessment. The outliers are BLSH’s other revenue sources that could increase at a faster rate, but the degree of BLSH’s valuation metrics are well above the highest estimates that could be considered.

Currently BLSH’s EV/Sales multiple sits near 44 times while the company’s stock price to operating cash flow/share is at 275 times. The cash flow multiple is the major issue as this degree of overvaluation is now greater than Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) which is arguably the most overvalued company in the U.S. stock market. BLSH taking this crown places the company in very precarious position, even when considering expanding cash flow margins.

Question 4 – How Long Will The Peter Thiel Effect Last?

Many investors are well versed that Peter Thiel has been an early backer of BLSH. Mr. Thiel has been a very successful investor dating back to PYPL, to META, to PLTR, and to today’s BLSH, among many others. But investors need to recognize that the perceived tailwinds of major investors, diversified non-U.S. revenue streams, and increasing Crypto adoption worldwide do not support today’s valuation.

Just as CRCL going public creates more transparency across USDC performance, BLSH has afforded the same opportunity with institutional trading volume and net revenue. This cuts both ways from a fundamental and valuation perspective.

The hype surrounding BLSH is fed by investors late to the party looking to build off major investors’ positions, but it is also tied to the broader market’s cycles. The current market cycle remains at all-time highs, which poses a mirage for investors thinking that BLSH will remain near or higher than the current stock price. There is no telling how long the stock market will remain at these highs, and for the time being, BLSH may not serve as a great short. If the stock price pushes higher, it will become an increasingly stronger short candidate, upon any correction, BLSH will be at a high risk of declining strongly. Investors should be treading cautiously.