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Roblox Drops Hard After May Metrics Update

Psalm Chapter 103 verse 13 states, "As a father has compassion on his children, so the Lord has compassion on those who fear him."


The Bible has a lot of correlations with parent children relationships. This is key as God is the Father of all He has created. It also helps make a connection to all of us as we have parents and a family. Not all families are equal, but God being the Father of all, is there for each and every one of us regardless of our circumstances, as long as we accept and obey Him.


So how does the term, compassion, equate to investing? For me it is pretty simple. I don't want to take things personal as my core objective is to mange the holdings in my portfolio. At the same time, there's a lot of misinformation and manipulation that occurs regularly each day, whether by Wallstreet, media, etc. Compassion in my world equates to understanding that there are many agendas out there to make a quick buck, but rather than get caught up in the cross-fire, I must be objective and keep my focus on the task at hand.



Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Update


Yesterday, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) provided the company's May 2021 metrics.



Clearly, today's Stock Price, SP sell-off reaction was not happy with the results.



Analysts weighed in with mixed commentary.

  • Stifel - May KPIs, not enough to sustain shares momentum

  • JPMorgan - shares likely range-bound

  • Morgan Stanley - lowers Q2 expectations, long-term view unchanged

  • Truist - May a typically down month, June expectations to be higher


The main problem I see at the moment is the disconnect created by Wallstreet's expectations for 2021.



Roblox guided for 2021 back in March, but this has been grossly overstated by Wallstreet's estimates.




I continue to expect Roblox to see a beat on the March estimates closer to $1.8 billion in Revenue with conservative OCF/FCF expectations at 20-22% for 2021, with an expectation for increasing margins towards 25-30% over the mid-term.



The key focal point for growth companies like Roblox is how fast they can grow into a fair valuation. Today's sell-off is good for investors looking to get a chance to initiate/accumulate. All-in-all, I'm not going to be accumulating more Roblox shares, unless the SP drops closer towards $70 per share, or lower. With Wallstreet's calculated overshoot for 2021, I'm expecting an accumulation opportunity at some point, possibly after the Q2 result.
















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